#0004 DISASTROUS TIME FOR TOURISM & AVIATION SECTOR

Hello again!!

We all are going through very tough time right now as this virus has become pandemic since very long times. But so far no solution available for the cure other than social distancing. As time passes by situation is becoming worse and worse. At the moment, there are more than 35 million cases have been registered for corona virus, and number is increasing every minute passing. 

This is our harsh reality!! What we can do is trust the process and be safe at home by social distancing. This virus is also affecting worldwide economies. If we talk about sectors, Aviation & Tourism are the worst ever affecting sectors so far due to world wide travelling ban. Most of the government has asked their citizen to avoid travel from the beginning. Airlines are struggling to operate as they are out of money due to travel ban. They are forcefully firing the staffs including cabin crew, pilots, ground staff and engineers. Same goes to travel agencies, all of the employees are yet to receive salary or forced firing is in order. Due to this more than 20 million people are now jobless in these industry alone.

Photo Credit - Getty Images - Jetlinerimages

International Air Passenger Traffic: An overall reduction of international passengers ranging from 44% to 80% in 2020 compared to 2019 - International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO)

Airports: An estimated loss of two-fifths of passenger traffic and 45% or over 76 Billion USD airport revenues in 2020 compared to business as usual - Aiport Council International (ACI) 

Airlines: A 48% decline of revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs, both international & Domestic) in 2020 compared to 2019 - International Air Transport Association (IATA)

Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 300 to 450 billion in 2020, almost one third of the USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019, with 96% of worldwide destinations having travel restrictions - UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO)                                                                                                                                                           (Source: www.icao.int)

From above statements from world's leading organisations, we can understand the situation now. As per current scenario, airlines are not giving the refund in form of payment methods but they are creating the credit shell for one year validity. So customer would not receive the amount but are force to re book on different date or different sectors of travelling in which fare difference applicable. We should understand as airlines are struggling to find cash flow to keep running the airline. Airlines are even asking government for bailout from their situation.

As for tourism sector, struggle is same as they are also in short of cash due to no booking. Travelling ban is the main cause of it and a matter of fact no one wants to travel any more due to fear even if government allow them. Result of this situation, travel agencies are firing their staff or struggling to pay their salary as even work from home is not possible for everyone as only work they are getting is modification or cancellation of the trip which they booked in advance. I am also a travel consultant, I am writing this as my own experience from ground reality of actual situation and the last thing I am probably thinking about right now is booking a flight internationally. I know that all of have pretty much writen off travel until at least September, and even that is no guarantee.

Travelling will be all different as i can predict it from my point of view. (Note: These are just my assumptions, do not take it as new guidelines from travel agents :P)

• DOMESTIC TRAVEL WILL BE  MORE POPULAR
  
  After every thing will be better and we are safe from leaving our home, every one will be surely wants to freshen up their mind. Every one would love to travel on their own vehicle for safety and getting some fresh air. So Travelling abroad will be no option for us as every place will have their own guidelines and process to follow. People will just get rid of those guidelines any more and would love to travel freely in their own country.

• AIRLINES WILL SUFFER AND INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL WILL BE LESS

For few months, everyone will be in very cautions on everything so travelling in plane with full of people would be not on the list at least for few months. As we already know that airlines are really having their worst time in the history, International travel will be less and people would distance themselves from travelling through air plane but, for saving themselves Airlines would really offer many cheap travelling deals for first few months to get attraction of the customers. They are already in tough time for them but it will remain same for few months.

• HOTELS COULD ACTUALLY BENEFIT FROM THIS

The hotel industry has been struggling for many years because of rise of AirBnB and Hostels. As they were providing freedom to their clients and offering activities in themselves. That is why people were attracted and also solo travelling is also a new trend nowadays. But eventually number of them  are now being out of business due to this pandemic. After situation will be in control, cleanliness will be higher priority for any one, as you can't guarantee whether or not an AirBnB or hostels will be cleaned properly; hotels and resort can at least offer that. Also expect to see deal - lots of them.

• RESTRICTIONS OF TRAVEL

As we know World will be open for sure very soon. While travelling will still be necessary for business or leisure. As World is opening up, every country will also open their border as well. They can't close their border entire time so what every government will do is provide strict and tighter guideline on who can enter the country, how long you can stay and what precautions you need to take.

• FLYING MIGHT BE EXPENSIVE

For the beginning, it wont be expensive as airlines will offer lots and lots of deals. But after some time there will be more taxes and charges from government and airline itself will come. As we know there were no TSA Securities prior to 9/11, it wasn't necessary to go through extra security clearance before that. But they created whole new department and for that they also charge us in our tickets to USA or fro USA for better management and fund the department to take care of us. So this might be the case in here as well, we might need to pay extra for the infrastructure to mass testing or new technology.

While some airlines got the bailout from government, they are fine but there are many airline who did not receive much of needed boost. Most of these are probably going to be low coast airlines. There are cheaper options are available because of these low coast airlines, if they struggle then I need to remind you the time when domestic travelling was also very expensive. However, If they successfully passes this time then they will be number one priority for the customers as they all want to travel cheap. Domestic travel is likely to bounce back a lot faster than international travel, meaning that budget airlines are going to get more benefit from international airline more. This could end up working out in their favour.  

There might me fewer routes with fewer air crafts, so this will also end up higher fares.

There's no way to know this for sure, but the situation is suggesting us this. For things to get back to the way they were, it might be year. This is also the time for rethink what we were doing wrong before. Traveller will hit the road again, but much of it will depend on when they can afford it.

What do you think? 

Let me know by comments and emails.

Thank You.

Hasan H.

Instagram: @world_4_travel_