#0006 TRAVEL: POST COVID-19

Image: REUTERS/Michaela Rehle

This disaster has changed all of our world, and not for the short term. Effect of this pandemic will be with us for long time and we will learn to live with it, until the vaccine is ready.

"The COVID-19 pandemic could cut 50 million jobs globally in the travel and tourism industry. The virus is hitting organisation hard from all over the world. They face complicated year ahead - if the WTTC is right, it will take up to 10 months for the sector to return to its normal levels." - World Travel and Tourism Council 

If you are looking for the industry which hit the most is non other than Travel and Hospitality Industry. In my company where I work, bookings are down by almost 100%, but we are working very hard to help the travellers who already booked their journey before this happened. However, the scale of the problem cannot be ignored; entire nations have been ordered to stay at home, airlines are filling bankruptcy, travel companies are laying of massive amounts of workers, and hotels are now hospitals and quarantine facilities.

• According to Arival, the whole Tours & Travel sector is valued at $254 billion for 2019, consisting of 1 million operators.
• Based on few week's survey, 28% of operators are at risk of closing business within the next 3 months or 46% within 6 months.
•  Average YoY decline in bookings is about 52%, partially due to a 37% cancellation of total 2020 bookings.                                                                                             Source: Plug and Play Travels

We will travel again, but it will not be the same as before. Even if borders reopen which soon to be reopen, travellers must trust that travelling in the plane and procedures in the airports are safe and that they will be able to enter the destination country. Obliviously there will be new health protocols and systems will need to be place, and these yet to be defined. As Government and Industry planning for recovery of the sector and they need to understand the behaviour of the travellers regarding their booking patterns, new changes, use of digital identities and using of touch less travel. If we talk about booking patterns, it will be change as lots of people would not book now in advance as per the research of International Air Transport Association in China.

As we can understand from above chart of behavioural change in china that traveller is booking the ticket at end moments because of lack of surety or for safety. These are just assumptions at the moment, so industry should react as per that.

Extra measures which includes the technological change and digital identity will only be effective if users feel that their data is protected. Privacy, consent and transparent data governance must be at the heart of any of these technical solutions.

            

Apart from these changes, there will be many changes coming which will change the travel, especially International travel, will look very different, once the things do start to return to "Normal".

But when will travel recover? The short answer is no nobody knows for sure. Travel will recover in stages and freedom to travel will changes day by day, not only country-by-country but by region. There are additional factors which need to focus are, whether social distancing on planes is economically viable for air carriers, the reliability of antibody tests, and if immunity is lasting. I think domestic travel will be begin to recover around October, While International travel will take more time as there will be more hurdles, which should manage to recover mid next year.

Air Travelling will start slow initially as per the many researches which took place by experts of the industry. I would love to share some more charts from International Air Transport Association:

You will now understand why airlines are forcing the government to get back in the action as we can see they will get the 2019's passenger flow around 2021-22. We hope number of passengers would come back to them as soon as possible. There will be many changes in future travelling which already wrote before but,

Here are the top changes I see coming.

• The queue at immigration will be longer than ever before

            We're already seeing with China, Singapore, and South Korea, countries that feel like they are on top of their outbreaks, that the biggest worry now is new infections coming from outside.Even in India,  Government is ordering all persons entering from anywhere to isolate for two week, even if they test negative for COVID-19.Even when lockdowns in Europe are over and they start to travel again, countries will test at the border. If you thought line at Mumbai Airport's Immigration & JFK Immigration control was headache before, now it will be more and consider now what it'll be like as you line up, take a swap test, and wait for the results.

• You'll need more than a passport

            We all know for travelling abroad required visas, which already requires many documents to prove you'll return back to your country. But from after this, it would require more of documents such as health certificates or you need to prove that you are fully recovered from the virus itself if you were infected. Wristbands with bar-codes like those in the movie Contagion are a very real prospect. However, you should keep in mind that these are just assumptions, do not quote on that. Hopefully all will be under control for everyone. Soon we will also get the list of extra requirements which we need to submit with normal document submission while processing our Visa for the particular country.

• Travel will have different seasons

          A very influential paper from Imperial College London speculates that governments will need to turn lock-down measures on and of in order to keep demands on healthcare system at a manageable level. This means there will some time when they let us travel and some times they will not allow. In this situation airline fare will be high due to more demand and of course for the business reasons as well. So it can be possible to have different seasons for travel. This is just a speculation, we are just discussing it as it seems to be possible.

• Recovery will be uneven

          Every country has its own timeline for this particular pandemic such some countries will open up their border early before some other country. As we can understand by the fact of China which was hit by the virus very early on the stage and they are the one who are on recovery in first place. So you might need to check this before travelling to ensure your own safety. As you can see the example of Italy as well. Some European countries started their border but some are not. We would have to gain more knowledge before travelling any where.

• You'll pack differently 

          Our packing will be have some new medical equipment, as we are being directed to wash our hands, and only way to do that when on the move is with hand sanitiser. We may well see the relaxing of liquid carry-on restriction as travellers want to take more than 100ml, especially on long haul flights. Along with hand sanitiser travel packs, its the masks which will be also necessary thing. Travellers will always travel with the mask from now on. In the same way that companies will make it more luxurious, fashionable etc. We will most likely see these fashionable and luxurious travel mask worn by Instagram Influencer and models around the world.

• Travel Insurance will be more in use

          Usage of travel insurance will be new trend. As we know that this type of thing will happen and we know it so everyone will take this extra step of precaution for themselves. However, many countries were already taking this step as necessary step. We used to ignore it before but not any more. Now, it will be choice of every country and every person at least for a initial few months or years. 

• Cabin Crew with PPE Uniform

        As we already seeing them in proper PPE Kit based uniform, it'll be there for initial months of normal travelling. I hope that its not be like it for time than expected.

• Societies won't like you when you are sick

          Even those who have recovered from the virus, and have built up immunity won't want to travel with a cold. Social Distancing is now new form of current directives from authorities which will eventually keep society to keep in track. If someone has cold or any symptoms like that, that someone would not allowed to board the flight or travel any more. Even people will give you a look if you cough or sneeze and try to maintain distance from you even though its just a normal flue. I predict that social stigma will put a lot of people off, resulting in the potential for more no shows on travel days.Yeah, We have to live with it. 

• Air quality will be an advertisement feature

          Any idea what grade air filter Lufthansa uses on their flights? How about British Airways? Emirates? Qatar Airways? Which Airbus model has the cleanest air? Do Boeing planes have fewer microbes in the air? No idea? Well, you may not know now, but once we're flying again properly, airlines will start boasting about their filtration systems. Some have already started emailing customers about their current systems in a bid to stop people cancelling. By the end of the year, it'll be a question many people will be asking - How safe is the air onboard? 

In the end, what we understand is that Collaboration is the Key. In this time of unprecedented change, government and industry must have to be on same page for change for the future, and to make travel safer and sustainable. This will not be possible without collaboration.

In the near future, travellers will need to co operate to accelerate the use of digital technologies but as I wrote about the trust must be there to accelerate this changes. Government and Industry must make sure to protect their privacy for faster provisions. This different digital identity shall operate together, so there won't be any error and would fasten the process. The role of organisation such as World Health Organisation, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) will be critical to align health and aviation priorities, guidelines and policies.

Paper passports are still required as the main form of identity for travellers, In Con-tactless world, the adoption of standardised digital travel credentials and initiatives like IATA's ONE ID concept, which promote the use of biometrics for a smoother journey, must be accelerated and adapted to this new context.

Ultimately, the pandemic is likely to speed up two trends that have been gathering steam for some time. One is seamless travel, where your face and body are your passport. the other is the idea of a decentralised identity. This means the traveller is in possession of and controls his/her identity attributes such as his/her date and place of birth and physical characteristics, but also travel history, health information and other dare. Combined these trends will ensure travel is enjoyable, efficient and safe.  

So I am concluding my blog here by stating how and when industry will co op after COVID-19. Of course these are my assumption and steps which I and only I believes. So don't mean this as the future.

I am no astrologer. :P :D  

Hope you find it interesting and informative.

Thank You.

Hasan H

Email: travellworld4u@gmail.com

Instagram: @world_4_travel_